Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 1.805138 1.918200 2.037243 2.172363 2.322009 2.483288 2.671074
2025-11-16 1.611849 1.764518 1.933073 2.134496 2.370703 2.641542 2.979469
2025-11-23 1.503717 1.679843 1.880778 2.129879 2.434587 2.800948 3.284042
2025-11-30 1.432975 1.627041 1.854413 2.145016 2.513504 2.975403 3.615930
2025-12-07 1.353973 1.556334 1.798284 2.114930 2.528067 3.063803 3.838819
2025-12-14 1.277548 1.482783 1.732157 2.064813 2.509121 3.101882 3.991160
2025-12-21 1.223671 1.433321 1.691996 2.043471 2.523795 3.183014 4.209448
2025-12-28 1.194600 1.412804 1.686434 2.065634 2.596928 3.349382 4.571673
2026-01-04 1.155816 1.377516 1.659186 2.055854 2.623208 3.448322 4.838705
2026-01-11 1.133743 1.362436 1.657115 2.079452 2.697476 3.623553 5.251720
2026-01-18 1.104666 1.336603 1.638982 2.078790 2.735021 3.744165 5.586681
2026-01-25 1.088331 1.326731 1.641565 2.107054 2.816986 3.941648 6.088535
2026-02-01 1.050089 1.286888 1.602474 2.074575 2.806104 3.990612 6.329031
2026-02-08 1.012399 1.246522 1.561086 2.036630 2.784154 4.019118 6.535188
2026-02-15 0.988268 1.223696 1.543138 2.032280 2.814904 4.140711 6.952945
2026-02-22 0.971576 1.210369 1.537840 2.046344 2.876015 4.321752 7.534704
2026-03-01 0.943223 1.179754 1.506408 2.018383 2.864763 4.368274 7.820401
2026-03-08 0.910978 1.142689 1.464301 1.971768 2.818744 4.344734 7.935021
2026-03-15 0.888294 1.118435 1.439993 1.951905 2.817248 4.406328 8.272474
2026-03-22 0.878363 1.111898 1.441320 1.972533 2.887360 4.615444 9.040001
2026-03-29 0.860761 1.093800 1.424767 1.963431 2.903721 4.717360 9.544793
2026-04-05 0.852390 1.088687 1.427337 1.985389 2.977544 4.947000 10.486066
2026-04-12 0.838522 1.075147 1.416632 1.984773 3.009422 5.090270 11.212795